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BEIJING—Gu Kailai, the wife of deposed Communist Party official Bo Xilai, could be released from prison within nine years on medical parole, legal experts say, despite being given a suspended death sentence for the murder of a British businessman.
Ms. Gu's sentence is almost certain to be commuted to life in prison after two years, the experts said. But she could serve less than a decade, they said—all in the relative comfort of a prison reserved for high-profile political figures.
Now that a Chinese court has handed down a suspended death penalty for Gu Kailai, attention is turning toward what this means for her husband, ousted official Bo Xilai. The WSJ's Jeremy Page on the next chapter of China's murder trial of the century.
They cited several previous examples of prominent political figures who were given suspended death sentences or long prison terms, and then released on medical parole after serving a few years, mostly in Qincheng prison on the outskirts of Beijing.
Even Jiang Qing, the widow of Chairman Mao Zedong, was released on medical parole from Qincheng in 1991—10 years after being given a suspended death sentence with a two-year reprieve for her role in the political chaos of the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution.
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- Bo Xilai Documentary: Inside the Scandal
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- CRT: Bo Guagua Speaks
- Children of the Revolution (11/26/11)
- 'Jackie Kennedy' of China (4/9/12)
- Fearful Hours for Briton (4/12/12)
- Bo Xilai Scandal Fells a Tycoon (7/22/12)
- French Architect Embroiled in Scandal (7/23/12)
She committed suicide in hospital the same year of her release.
Ms. Gu will join a dozen or so prominent political figures currently serving jail terms, mostly in Qincheng and mostly for corruption.
Analysts say China's leadership had hoped that the appearance of a stiff sentence for Ms. Gu would convince a domestic audience that members of the party elite are not above the law, and help to draw a line under the country's worst political scandal in two decades.
But the court's decision Monday to spare Ms. Gu the death penalty, and to lay the ground for medical parole by mentioning her mental-health problems, suggests to many observers that a deal was made behind the scenes to avoid further controversy within the party's upper ranks.
Although that may help smooth the way for the arty to announce how it plans to handle Mr. Bo, analysts say it risks undermining the credibility of the process in the eyes of a skeptical public that is increasingly reliant on the Internet, rather than state media, for information and opinion.
Among the many critical online responses Monday was one from Yao Bo, a popular newspaper columnist and social commentator, who wrote on Sina Corp.'s SINA -1.89%Weibo microblogging service: "How wonderful life is, how handy the law can be, as long as you have the party to protect you."
Media and fashion commentator Hong Huang, who has more than five million followers on her microblog, wrote: "I have a legal question: Can't a suspended sentence be commuted to life in prison with good behavior? And with good behavior, can't life in prison be changed to release on parole?"
The court spared Ms. Gu from immediate execution in part because she "suffers from a mental disorder" and "her power of self-control was weakened," according to the state-run Xihua news agency.
It also acknowledged that she had provided "clues regarding other people's violations of the law and discipline and played a positive role in the investigation and handling of relevant cases." Many observers took that to mean that she had provided information about her own husband.
In addition, Ms. Gu pleaded guilty, showed remorse for her crimes, and does not plan to appeal, according to Xinhua. That, too, was seen as an indication that she had agreed not to publicly challenge the verdict in exchange for leniency from the court, observers said.
A Chinese court has handed a suspended death sentence to Gu Kailai, the wife of former Communist Party Chief Bo Xilai, for the murder of British businessman Neil Heywood. The WSJ's Deborah Kan speaks to China Editor Andrew Browne about what's behind the ruling.
Television footage showed that Ms. Gu, dressed in a black pantsuit and white shirt as she was during her trial on Aug. 9, remained composed when the verdict and sentence were announced.
"I feel this judgment is fair," she was seen telling the court in footage broadcast on state-run China Central Television. "It fully reflects the special respect that the court holds toward the law, toward reality, and especially toward life."
One lawyer involved in the case said Ms. Gu would likely be permitted to see her family within 10 days if she didn't appeal.
Some friends of the Gu family have said that they feel Ms. Gu—who also goes by the name of Horus L. Kai—has been made a scapegoat for all the allegations of corruption and abuse of power that have been leveled at Mr. Bo by his critics, especially lawyers and academics critical of Mr. Bo's politics, which encouraged nostalgia for the Mao era.
"It's painful for me because Horus is probably going to spend the rest of her life in jail," Larry Cheng, an American of Taiwanese origin who used to work with Ms. Gu in the 1990s, told The Wall Street Journal.
According to China's criminal law, Ms. Gu's suspended death sentence could be commuted to a life sentence, if she doesn't commit another crime in the next two years, or to 25 years if she displays good conduct. But some legal experts say Ms. Gu could serve even less time.
San Francisco-based rights group Dui Hua Foundation said in a statement on it website that most suspended sentences were commuted to life in prison, and people serving life sentences were usually eligible for medical parole after seven years of their sentences being commuted.
"Nine years from now, if she can convince the prison that she is suffering from a serious illness, there would be a legal basis to release her," said Joshua Rosenzweig, an expert on China's criminal-justice system at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Donald Clarke, an expert on Chinese law at George Washington University Law School, wrote on his blog that according to a ruling from China's Supreme Court, a commuted sentence could be reduced to 15 years in prison, even without medical parole. The ruling couldn't be independently verified.
Associated Press
Bo Xilai and Gu Kailai, seen in a 2007 photo
Other legal experts pointed out that however much time Ms. Gu spent in custody, it was all likely to be in a special facility such as Qincheng prison, where many other high-profile political figures have been jailed.
Among them is Chen Xitong, the former Politburo member and mayor of Beijing who was jailed for corruption in 1998 but released on medical parole in 2006 after serving half of a 16-year prison term.
Mr. Bo's father, Bo Yibo, was also held at Qincheng after he was purged by Chairman Mao in the 1960s.
Little is known about conditions at Qincheng and how many prisoners it currently holds. One Chinese newspaper, the Shenzhen Economic Daily, published a rare feature story on Qincheng in May this year.
It said standard cells were about 20 square meters, each with a toilet and a bed. Walls of cells for major criminals were padded with rubber to prevent them from harming themselves, it said.
But prominent political figures had larger cells, some furnished with desks, bathrooms, sit-down toilets and washing machines, and were permitted to watch television for two hours every evening, it said.
Senior figures with health problems can also receive private care from family members, who can provide basic necessities such as clothing, the newspaper added.
—Brian Spegele, Josh Chin, Olivia Geng and Yoli Zhang in Beijing and Yang Jie in Shanghai contributed to this article.x x x."
